This alert expired on 5 July 2026 at 22:20 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 31st strongest of the 115 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 16 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 5 at 6:11PM EDT until July 5 at 6:15PM EDT by NWS Wakefield VA
An estimated 641,154 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- July 18, 2026 · score 48 · 4.7 km
- June 27, 2026 · score 43 · 7.4 km
- August 8, 2026 · score 48 · 9.8 km
How we know
Confirmed by 2 independent sources, including NOAA.
Our own score for this event is 48 out of 100, at 84 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Event Data
| Type | Severe weather |
| Severity | medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 48 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 84% |
| Coordinates | 38.3879, -77.3937 |
| Nearest City | Fredericksburg (11 km) |
| Population Exposed | 641.2K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-05T22:11:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.29c311ddd08511db86e1e6224b3e614f |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Caroline, VA; Spotsylvania, VA; City of Fredericksburg, VA; Culpeper, VA; Orange, VA; Spotsylvania, VA and 3 more areas |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 5 at 6:11PM EDT until July 5 at 6:15PM EDT by NWS Wakefield VA |
| Expires | 2026-07-05T18:20:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Wakefield VA |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 6 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.29c311ddd08511db86e1e6224b3e614f9c1bbd0e.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.717f1cdfaa61e536620780ff71fcea384bef6667.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.aad880bff0efd621abec226d9089787489e385cd.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.7193a1496f5824f59597fe45bbbd6c0a444d7a26.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.1be5f27eb78a4cf2928a123677887dad65cf05db.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.283a28e60f6217d77d147424f70301c3372f6adb.001.1"] |
| Iem TypeSummary | D |
| Iem City | 1 N Guinea |
| Iem County | Caroline |
| Iem State | VA |
| Iem Wfo | AKQ |
| Iem Remark | Multiple trees down on Claiborne Crossing road in Caroline County. Time estimated from radar. |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"iem_D_38.160_-77.440_1783287000000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783287000000,"latitude":38.16,"longitude":-77.44}] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 10 February 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 48/100, near Fredericksburg (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 188 scientific monitoring sources.